The November 5 US presidential elections, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors, and the upcoming quarterly earnings from domestic firms are the major triggers that would influence sentiments in the equity market this week, analysts said. In an eventful week ahead, a host of macroeconomic data announcements and global trends would also drive the markets, experts said. "The upcoming week is poised to be eventful on the global front.
'The market's sharp decline recently has shaken the confidence of retail investors, leading to increased selling.'
Withdrawing a blanket ban on overseas shipments of non-basmati white rice, the government on Saturday imposed a floor price of $490 per tonne and exempted the commodity from export duty. Exports of non-basmati white rice have been banned since July 20, 2023 to boost domestic supply. "The export policy for non-basmati white rice (semi-milled or wholly milled rice, whether or not polished or gazed) ...is amended from prohibited to free, subject to MEP (minimum export price) of $490 per tonne with immediate effect and until further orders," the directorate general of foreign trade (DGFT) said in a notification.
Global rating agency Moody's on Monday raised India's growth forecast for 2024 calendar year to 6.8 per cent, from 6.1 per cent estimated earlier, on the back of 'stronger-than-expected' economic data of 2023 and fading global economic headwinds. India's real GDP expanded 8.4 per cent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2023, resulting in a 7.7 per cent growth for full-year 2023. Capital spending by the government and strong manufacturing activity have meaningfully contributed to the robust growth outcomes in 2023, Moody's Investors Service said.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar reiterated India's stance on the Depsang and Demchok areas in Ladakh, stating that Indian security forces will patrol up to the historical limits. He also firmly rejected Nepal's alleged territorial claims, asserting that India's position on the border is clear and will not be altered. Jaishankar also addressed the situation in Myanmar and India's 'Neighborhood First' policy, highlighting the government's commitment to regional cooperation and development.
Among the Sensex constituents, 18 stocks closed in negative with UltraTech Cement, L&T, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance and Tech Mahindra being major laggards. Other heavyweights like Asian Paints, Maruti, Titan and JSW Steel also saw heavy selling. In contrast, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finserve, HDFC Bank, ITC and SBI bucked the trend and ended the session with a gain of up to 2.09 per cent.
The India-United States relationship is set to expand under the Donald Trump administration, but there could be some unease on issues like imports, tariffs and immigration, strategic affairs experts said after the Republican leader won the fiercely contested presidential election.
The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has accused Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi of raising questions on sensitive defence matters in Parliament after his marriage to a British citizen. Sarma alleged that Gogoi's wife, Elizabeth Colburn, has links with the Pakistani establishment, including working for an organisation allegedly a front for the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Gogoi has rejected the allegations as "baseless" and said the BJP is trying to divert attention from its own failures.
The landmark India-US civil nuclear deal of 2008, brokered during Manmohan Singh's tenure as Prime Minister, is seen as a crowning achievement in his foreign policy legacy. The agreement ended India's nuclear isolation, fostered a strategic partnership with the US, and opened doors to advanced technologies and defense cooperation. This historic deal also laid the groundwork for India's engagement with the global nuclear community.
Dalal Street had a roller coaster ride in 2024 from shattering record after record to facing heavy correction off-late but equity markets still rewarded investors with positive returns, driven by a surge in domestic fund flows and a resilient macro landscape. The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, according to Motilal Oswal Wealth Management.
The Indian equity market clocked record average daily turnover (ADTV) in both the cash and derivatives segments in February amid a spike in volatility. The ADTV for the cash segment for both the exchanges combined came at Rs 1.27 trillion, while the same for the derivatives or the futures and options (F&O) segment stood at Rs 483 trillion in the previous month. The volumes for both cash and derivatives have almost doubled from a year ago on the back of rising retail participation in the world's fourth largest equity market.
Cheaper ripoffs was how China powered its way as an economic superpower but hitherto the tech realm had remained out of bounds. With DeepSeek's AI model the West, it seemed, was about to lose its competitive edge in cutting edge generative AI technology. And this is what is causing deep furrows in the forehead of tech titans in Silicon Valley.
As RBI governor, Sanjay Malhotra will have to give the highest priority to the interest of the economy while deciding on the growth-inflation trade off at Mint Street.
'Trump's desire to withdraw the US from some arenas on the global stage will result in ceding space to China.'
'Traders must adopt digital payments as soon as possible within a set timeframe, as the nation is moving rapidly towards digitisation.' 'Ignoring digital systems is not an option for strengthening trade.'
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said India is likely continue to face challenges in raising longer-term growth potential and creating enough jobs for its young population in the absence of higher trade openness. In its report on South Asia sovereigns, Moody's said compared with other South Asian economies, India appears to be in a better position to deepen its integration in global value chains, attract FDI and increase exports. The country has better macroeconomic fundamentals, more stable politics and a more developed export sector.
The annual supplement to the Foreign Trade Policy, which will be released on Friday by Commerce Minister Kamal Nath, is likely to announce a host of measures for exporters to help them tackle the appreciation in rupee against the dollar as well as to achieve an export target of $200 billion for 2008-09. Significantly, this is the last year of the Foreign Trade Policy, which was introduced after the UPA government came into power in May 2004.
India and the United States have agreed to deepen their strategic partnership in several key areas, with President Donald Trump announcing plans to provide India with F-35 fighter jets and billions of dollars in military supplies. The two leaders also discussed energy cooperation, critical technologies, connectivity, and countering terrorism. They agreed to work together on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, and Trump noted India's reforms to welcome US nuclear technologies. Prime Minister Modi said the two countries can shape a better world through their cooperation. Both leaders also addressed the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Modi stressing India's commitment to peace.
India Inc said the Foreign Trade Policy would give a significant push to manufactured goods and agriculture- and labour-intensive exports.
E-commerce firms and sellers including Amazon and eBay have made recommendations to the government for a differentiated policy framework for e-commerce in the revised Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) which is expected to come into effect from April 1, 2021. This is because the existing policies on exports have catered largely to traditional, offline and business-to-business exports. Suggestions have been made to the government that through the FTP, it is important to create a conducive policy framework for e-commerce exports that lowers the entry barrier for small businesses to start exporting, according to the industry sources.
From the 30-share Sensex blue-chip pack, Titan, Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Tata Consultancy Services, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever and JSW Steel were the biggest laggards.
New investors should gradually build a 5 to 10 per cent allocation to gold.
Among the Sensex firms, State Bank of India rose the most by 3.78 per cent after the bank announced the acquisition of SBI CAPS subsidiary for Rs 708.07 crore. Nestle India gained 1.68 per cent after it reported around 9 per cent growth in sales. JSW Steel, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank and Asian Paints were among the gainers.
The government has decided to set up a joint venture company with industry body Ficci for encouraging investment in the country."The Invest India company, a joint venture between the department of industrial policy and promotion and Ficci, would be funded by the government and managed by the chamber," commerce and industry Minister Kamal Nath said
Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, NTPC, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv and Larsen & Toubro were also among the laggards. However, Power Grid, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services and ICICI Bank were among the gainers.
A host of macroeconomic data announcements, the last batch of September quarter earnings, global trends, and trading activity of foreign investors will be the major driving factors for the equity market this week, according to analysts. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for Guru Nanak Jayanti. "India is set to release CPI and IIP data on November 12, with WPI data expected on November 14.
The new Foreign Trade Policy announced a slew of tax concessions to boost exports, which have been on the downslide since October 2008.
The dramatic moves of Donald Trump, which have shaken up the global order, dominated the discussion. A sense of bewilderment prevailed, but there was also expectation that President Trump would settle down to a more traditional style of governance after a time of shock and awe, observes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan, an attendee at literary festivals in Calicut, Jaipur, Kochi, Sharjah and Thiruvanathapuram.
Dar also said Pakistan views Russia as an important player in the West, South and Central Asia, and strengthening mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia remains an important priority for Pakistan's foreign policy.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
The Commerce Ministry is set to unveil the annual review of the Foreign Trade Policy on April 11. It would not be exports alone which would be the focus, but steps to ease imports are also likely to give a boost to supply of essential commodities.The government is facing political pressure from many quarters, including the Left parties, to check the rising prices within a couple of weeks.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday congratulated President-elect Donald Trump on his election victory and called for China and the United States to find the right way to manage the differences by strengthening dialogue and communication.
There is no reason to worry. We have exceeded our expectations. When we announced the FTP in 2004, our exports were at $63 billion. Today (in 2007-08), they have crossed $155 billion.
After a brutal selloff since October, foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows for the year-to-date (YTD) in 2024 have turned negative. In early September, YTD FPI investments peaked at a record Rs 22,000 crore ($2.6 billion). This wave of selling has also pulled down benchmark indices, with the Nifty's YTD returns declining to 11 per cent from their high of 21 per cent in September.
The impact of Trump's announcement of increasing import tariffs will have negligible benefit for India not because of companies trying to shift from China to other countries or their supply chains being affected due to their Chinese operations but because of our faulty policies, explains Mudit Jain.
The 16th Brics Summit beginning Tuesday in Kazan, Russia, is expected to see more focus on creating a sharper energy policy for Brics that ensures closer partnership among members in both energy security and energy transition, official sources said. The same is expected to be a part of the Kazan declaration, currently being negotiated, they added.
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